In a sensitive political environment where media and information literacy is not sufficiently developed, in the midst of divisive political rhetoric, and in an insufficiently regulated online space, harmful narratives can thwart democratic processes, influence the outcome of elections and discredit the electoral process. The impact of harmful content in the current information and media environment in BiH can potentially further weaken institutions at the state level, strain relations among the ethno-national groups, and strengthen the interests of certain political groups within the country, as well as of foreign powers. The public in BiH is particularly sensitive to disinformation and political propaganda during election periods, when many actors use the mainly unregulated internet sphere, the lack of incentives for quality journalism and the weak political and media literacy of citizens to manipulate voters for their own particular interests. However, apart from sporadic analyses, there has been no comprehensive, in-depth research that would expose the scope, sources, patterns and elements of harmful content and narratives that can thwart electoral processes.

The aim of this research is to identify and analyse the types, patterns, sources and elements of harmful narratives that target certain groups and institutions during and after the election period. As pointed out in the study “Regulation of Harmful Content Online in Bosnia and Herzegovina: Between Freedom of Expression and Harms to Democracy”, there is no unanimous definition of what is considered harmful because the concept of harm is subjective and largely depends on the context and culture, and can vary from one country to another. Illegal harmful content is content that does not comply with the laws, while potentially harmful content might not be prohibited, but may harm groups and individuals.

A study commissioned by the European Parliament, “Reform of the EU Liability Regime for Online Intermediaries: Background on the Forthcoming Digital Services Act,” defines illegal content as a large variety of content categories that are not compliant with legislation, such as hate speech. Potentially harmful content, on the other hand, is not strictly prohibited, but may nevertheless hamper the ability of citizens to make informed decisions. Such content includes, for example, disinformation, false information and malinformation.

In this research, we define harmful content during election periods as content that may harm electoral processes and jeopardise the right of citizens to receive accurate information on the basis of which they will make informed decisions. This is also content that manipulates and misinforms voters by using gender stereotypes, war rhetoric and ethnicity in a still patriarchal, ethno-nationally divided and post-conflict society such as BiH. It includes illegal content, such as hate speech, and potentially harmful content, such as disinformation, as well as various methods aimed at unfairly manipulating voter attitudes and decisions, including disinformation campaigns, smear campaigns against political candidates, and propaganda and biased media reporting.

By analysing the content of the media, profiles and groups on social networks and by detailed deconstruction of selected narratives, in the publication we provide an overview of the types, patterns, sources and elements of narratives that are used during the election process to try to manipulate the public and are aimed at female candidates, ethno-national groups and state institutions, in this case the Central Election Commission, as well as “foreign actors” - representatives of international organisations or individual countries who are active or have significant foreign policy relations with BiH or with individual political actors. With the use of tools for monitoring online media and social networks and with selected keywords, over a period of three months, from the beginning of August to the end of October 2022, content from a hundred different online sources was extracted and analysed, different types of harmful content were identified, and then deconstruction of the main harmful narratives was carried out for each group: female candidates, ethno-national groups, CEC and foreign actors.

The publication represents the first effort of the non-governmental sector, based on a large amount of content and the deconstruction of narratives, to analyse the main harmful narratives, their sources and elements that may influence fair elections in BiH. Although the analysis is not comprehensive, as it does not include other target groups or numerous other sources of problematic content, it provides insight, through a large number of sources and three months’ monitoring, into the ways in which the political elites and political parties use the media and social networks to disseminate harmful narratives and influence voters, and deconstructs in detail the most blatant and dangerous examples of such narratives.

The authors are independent experts and the principles that guided them are the principles of democracy and human rights. The publication consists of eight main chapters in addition to the introductory and last chapters, which contain the introduction, methodology and recommendations. The second chapter, authored by Adnan Huskić, provides an overview of the political situation in the country, the political parties and the main socio-political events of 2022. In the third chapter, Marija Arnautović writes about the main challenges faced by the media and information sectors in BiH and the ways in which the political elites influence editorial policies. The fourth chapter, by Jasmina Čaušević, Kristina Ljevak and Selma Zulić Šiljak, provides the results of the monitoring of harmful content about female candidates during the 2022 General Election and shows how gender stereotypes, especially on anonymous portals, are used to discredit female politicians. The fifth chapter, by Belma Buljubašić, provides an analysis of elements of harmful narratives on an ethno-national basis, use of war rhetoric and hate narratives against Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats and their political representatives to mobilise voters. This chapter is particularly focused on the election campaign period, but also on monitoring content on social networks. In the sixth chapter, author Amer Džihana analyses the discrediting campaigns against the Central Election Commission, as an example of the discrediting of state institutions and the entire election process. The seventh chapter provides the results and main elements of harmful narratives involving foreign actors, primarily Christian Schmidt and NATO, and how these narratives were and still are used to label political opponents as traitors. In the eighth chapter, Nedim Sejdinović provides an overview of the influence of the neighbouring countries on the media sector and political processes in BiH and the main narratives about the 2022 General Elections in BiH in Serbia and Croatia. In the ninth chapter, Lejla Gačanica provides an overview of the regulation and self-regulation of harmful content in BiH, as well as examples of good practice in the countries of the European Union, which can be models for establishing better mechanisms for regulation and self-regulation of harmful content.

The publication in ENG is available here.